一千零九章 不一样的训练(19)

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北约东扩虽然带来了‘地盘‘的开展，但也带来了问题的扩展，这些问题将撕破北约大幕。首先是欧美之间的问题。北约成员不断增加，欧盟也在紧锣密鼓地筹划扩大，随着实力的增强，摆脱米国控制的越来越大，欧美矛盾与摩擦日益增多。

其次，东欧国家之间尚未解决的领土争端和民族矛盾也随着北约东扩被带入北约。将把加剧其内部的复杂形势。第三，东扩需要的大量开支有可能使一些相对‘贫穷‘的新成员难堪重负。并对现在的成员国形成压力。米国和其欧洲盟国间的军事开支差距不断加大，这种不断拉大的差距使美欧间愈益失去‘平衡‘，影响着北约的运转。而增加军事预算对欧洲盟国来说又是个多年难以解决的问题。

而且，由于北约快速东扩，造成其后方的军事纵深和政治布局难以紧跟扩张的形势需要，导致北约自身对内部问题的解决机制难以有效运转，北约势必不能有效解决包括领土争端和民族矛盾问题在内的众多棘手的问题，这就将导致一些成员国的反复，他们有可能退出北约，从而撕破北约大幕。

中东南亚支点不稳，腹部疾病丛生。长期以来，中东实际上就是动荡的代名词，要实现中东的和平与稳定，并不仅仅意味着要解决一系列复杂的民族问题。米国的中东和平路线图无法给中东带来真正持久的和平。中东之所以长久处于动荡和战乱，主要还是因为其巨大的战略价值和丰富的石油资源。

中东是国际势力争夺的战略要地。要实现中东持久的稳定与和平，从战略角度看，必须要有两个先决条件：要么是国际格局形成了一个稳定的力量平衡，要么是其中一方成功地将其他各方从中东的角逐中驱赶出去，实现了对中东的独占。当前，虽然米国的势力急剧膨胀，但还不能作到将世界其他国家的影响从中东驱赶出去，而国际整个格局也还处于调整变化时期，国际格局的平衡短时期内还无法出现。

因此，在可以预见的将来，中东将仍然是动荡和充满战乱的区域。而一个动荡和充满战乱的中东对驻中东美军本身是一种安全weixie，必然要牵制大量的兵力，更大的问题还在于米国在中东已激起了广泛的仇恨。由于种种原因，米国并不能直接在有关国家推行经典的殖民统治，它必须通过当地人来维护自身的利益。

为了确保‘当地人‘在掌权后，能死心塌地地为米国办事，米国必须对相关国家的各个层面进行米国化的改造，培育‘当地人‘对米国的畏惧和向往。然而驻沙特美军的痛苦经历说明，代理政治并不可靠。而且，中东人民在与米国迂回斗争的同时，他们也将谋求夺取国家政权，以终结亲美政权并获得和米国斗争的更大资源支持。大主宰

这意味着新一轮的民族运动的兴起。这对米国霸权造成的影响是致命的，将会直接导致米国霸权的终结。民族运动对米国的霸权的伤害就像溃疡yiyang，随时有可能导致整个局势的溃烂。

南亚的主要问题是印度。印度虽然对米国进入该地区表现了某种积极姿态，甚至印度国内有人鼓吹美印结盟。但米国和印度的接近离真正的战略性结盟还有很大距离。近来印度的外交活动表明，印度当前的策略是在华国、米国和俄罗斯三大力量之间周旋，玩的是借力打力的手段。

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